Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Michael Chandler
Tony Ferguson
57%
43%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
36
Age
Δ 2y
38
23-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
26-12
L2
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Chandler: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
Ferguson: 20 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chandler
Tony Ferguson
67
Sig strikes landed
80
135
Sig strikes attempted
177
80
Total strikes landed
95
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.7
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
23-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
Blue corner
L3
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
19 fights · 15-4
Last 5
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—