Back to UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
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Mauricio Rua vs Ovince Saint Preux

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje ·Footprint Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Ovince Saint Preux
67% 33%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
40
Age
Δ 1y
39
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
27-19
L1
Current streak
L2
18
UFC fights in our DB
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rua: 54 sig / 0 TD · Saint Preux: 62 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Rua
Ovince Saint Preux
37
Sig strikes landed
32
70
Sig strikes attempted
58
48
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Mauricio Rua

"Shogun"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 18 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
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W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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D UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
Blue corner
L2

Ovince Saint Preux

27-19
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database 24 fights · 13-11
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—