Prelims1
Welterweight
Francisco Trinaldo vs Danny Roberts
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
Danny Roberts
68%
32%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
44
Age
Δ 9y
35
29-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-8
W1
Current streak
W2
24
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Trinaldo: 80 sig / 0 TD ·
Roberts: 36 sig / 0 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
Danny Roberts
42
Sig strikes landed
37
74
Sig strikes attempted
85
56
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
163s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
44
In our database
24 fights · 17-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Danny Roberts
"Hot Chocolate"
19-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—