Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Royval
Matt Schnell
64%
36%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
32
18-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-10
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Royval: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Schnell: 12 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Royval
Matt Schnell
34
Sig strikes landed
33
92
Sig strikes attempted
83
41
Total strikes landed
37
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
54s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
Blue corner
W1
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—