Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandr Romanov
Chase Sherman
84%
16%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
19-3
Career record
Δ 31 pp
16-13
W4
Current streak
L3
4
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Romanov: 8 sig / 3 TD ·
Sherman: 0 sig / 0 TD
Alexandr Romanov
Chase Sherman
53
Sig strikes landed
39
103
Sig strikes attempted
86
71
Total strikes landed
48
2.6
Takedowns landed
-0.2
7.2
Takedowns attempted
-0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
261s
Control time
-5s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Alexandr Romanov
"King Kong"
19-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
Blue corner
L3
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16-13
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 3-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—