Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Krzysztof Jotko
Gerald Meerschaert
71%
29%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
33
Age
Δ 2y
34
25-6
Career record
Δ 17 pp
38-22
W1
Current streak
W3
15
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jotko: 65 sig / 4 TD ·
Meerschaert: 37 sig / 1 TD
Krzysztof Jotko
Gerald Meerschaert
42
Sig strikes landed
29
88
Sig strikes attempted
77
59
Total strikes landed
39
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
165s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Krzysztof Jotko
25-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
Blue corner
W3
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
38-22
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—