Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Lacerda
Francisco Figueiredo
57%
43%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
26
Age
Δ 7y
32
11-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
13-6-1
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lacerda: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Figueiredo: 5 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Lacerda
Francisco Figueiredo
18
Sig strikes landed
26
34
Sig strikes attempted
48
40
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
2.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
293s
Control time
257s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Daniel Lacerda
"Miojo"
11-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
Blue corner
L1
Francisco Figueiredo
"Sniper"
13-6-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—