Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Tristan Connelly
81%
19%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
38
Age
Δ 2y
36
29-13
Career record
Δ 8 pp
14-9
L1
Current streak
L1
25
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elkins: 75 sig / 5 TD ·
Connelly: 66 sig / 0 TD
Darren Elkins
Tristan Connelly
50
Sig strikes landed
38
113
Sig strikes attempted
83
78
Total strikes landed
59
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
8.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
263s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
25 fights · 16-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tristan Connelly
"Boondock"
14-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—