Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jared Gordon
Grant Dawson
23%
77%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
34
Age
Δ 5y
28
22-9
Career record
Δ 12 pp
24-3-2
W3
Current streak
D1
9
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Gordon: 77 sig / 0 TD ·
Dawson: 54 sig / 7 TD
Jared Gordon
Grant Dawson
41
Sig strikes landed
46
88
Sig strikes attempted
103
73
Total strikes landed
76
0.9
Takedowns landed
2.7
3.6
Takedowns attempted
8.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
120s
Control time
322s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
22-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
D1
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
24-3-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 5-0
Last 5
D
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—