Main
Lightweight
Vinc Pichel vs Mark Madsen
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Vinc Pichel
Mark Madsen
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
39
Age
Δ 2y
38
15-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
13-2
W3
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pichel: 68 sig / 1 TD ·
Madsen: 39 sig / 3 TD
Vinc Pichel
Mark Madsen
43
Sig strikes landed
41
95
Sig strikes attempted
97
54
Total strikes landed
57
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Vinc Pichel
"From Hell"
15-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
Blue corner
W3
Mark Madsen
"The Olympian"
13-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—