Back to UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
Prelims1 Welterweight

Ian Machado Garry vs Darian Weeks

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ian Machado Garry
Darian Weeks
85% 15%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
18-1
Career record
Δ 39 pp
5-4
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Machado Garry: 74 sig / 0 TD · Weeks: 40 sig / 1 TD
Ian Machado Garry
Darian Weeks
74
Sig strikes landed
37
147
Sig strikes attempted
64
82
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
139s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ian Machado Garry

"The Future"
18-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
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Blue corner
L1

Darian Weeks

5-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
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