Main
Women's Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern vs Tecia Pennington
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mackenzie Dern
Tecia Pennington
73%
27%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
60"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
16-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
16-8
L1
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Dern: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Pennington: 76 sig / 0 TD
Mackenzie Dern
Tecia Pennington
53
Sig strikes landed
57
126
Sig strikes attempted
113
85
Total strikes landed
76
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
158s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mackenzie Dern
16-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
Blue corner
W3
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
16-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—