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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Marcin Prachnio vs Philipe Lins

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Marcin Prachnio
Philipe Lins
49% 51%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
78"
34
Age
Δ 3y
37
18-9
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-6
W2
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Prachnio: 74 sig / 0 TD · Lins: 64 sig / 4 TD
Marcin Prachnio
Philipe Lins
42
Sig strikes landed
34
75
Sig strikes attempted
74
52
Total strikes landed
39
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
34s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Marcin Prachnio

18-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
Blue corner
L2

Philipe Lins

"Monstro"
18-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—