Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Claudio Puelles
50%
50%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
40
Age
Δ 14y
26
39-22
Career record
Δ 10 pp
14-5
W1
Current streak
W4
22
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Guida: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Puelles: 1 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Claudio Puelles
20
Sig strikes landed
35
52
Sig strikes attempted
87
42
Total strikes landed
54
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.7
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
182s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
39-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
22 fights · 12-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
Blue corner
W4
Claudio Puelles
"Prince of Peru"
14-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—