Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lando Vannata
Charles Jourdain
33%
67%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
13-8-2
Career record
Δ 11 pp
19-8-1
W1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Vannata: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Jourdain: 4 sig / 0 TD
Lando Vannata
Charles Jourdain
62
Sig strikes landed
63
142
Sig strikes attempted
141
70
Total strikes landed
77
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
59s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Lando Vannata
"Groovy"
13-8-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Jourdain
"Air"
19-8-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—