Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aoriqileng
Cameron Else
85%
15%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
29
Age
Δ 6y
35
26-14
Career record
Δ 6 pp
10-7
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aoriqileng: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Else: 6 sig / 0 TD
Aoriqileng
Cameron Else
40
Sig strikes landed
55
76
Sig strikes attempted
129
70
Total strikes landed
61
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
154s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Aoriqileng
"The Mongolian Murderer"
26-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Cameron Else
"Camchida"
10-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—