Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jordan Leavitt
Trey Ogden
63%
37%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
27
Age
Δ 6y
32
W1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Leavitt: 69 sig / 0 TD ·
Ogden: 41 sig / 1 TD
Jordan Leavitt
Trey Ogden
24
Sig strikes landed
21
46
Sig strikes attempted
40
43
Total strikes landed
37
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
179s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jordan Leavitt
"The Monkey King"
14-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
Trey Ogden
"Shamurai"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32