Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Istela Nunes vs Sam Hughes
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Istela Nunes
Sam Hughes
46%
54%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
6-7
Career record
Δ 12 pp
11-8
L1
Current streak
L3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Nunes: 89 sig / 0 TD ·
Hughes: 76 sig / 2 TD
Istela Nunes
Sam Hughes
54
Sig strikes landed
59
114
Sig strikes attempted
130
65
Total strikes landed
88
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
81s
Control time
223s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Istela Nunes
6-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
Blue corner
L3
Sam Hughes
"Sampage"
11-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—