Main
Middleweight
Caio Borralho vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Caio Borralho
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
75%
25%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Borralho: 31 sig / 1 TD ·
Omargadzhiev: 12 sig / 1 TD
Caio Borralho
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
40
Sig strikes landed
35
82
Sig strikes attempted
74
57
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
Blue corner
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29