Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Miguel Baeza
Andre Fialho
55%
45%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
10-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-9
L2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Baeza: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Fialho: 32 sig / 0 TD
Miguel Baeza
Andre Fialho
58
Sig strikes landed
51
124
Sig strikes attempted
127
62
Total strikes landed
60
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
27s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Miguel Baeza
"Caramel Thunder"
10-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
Blue corner
L1
Andre Fialho
16-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—