Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Vicente Luque
Belal Muhammad
48%
52%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
30
Age
Δ 3y
34
25-12-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
25-5
W4
Current streak
W6
17
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Luque: 84 sig / 0 TD ·
Muhammad: 60 sig / 5 TD
Vicente Luque
Belal Muhammad
73
Sig strikes landed
74
158
Sig strikes attempted
160
83
Total strikes landed
103
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
6.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
66s
Control time
212s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
25-12-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
17 fights · 14-3
Last 5
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
Blue corner
W6
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—