Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alatengheili
Kevin Croom
64%
36%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 7"
74"
30
Age
Δ 4y
35
17-10-3
Career record
Δ 0 pp
21-16
D1
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Alatengheili: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Croom: 2 sig / 0 TD
Alatengheili
Kevin Croom
43
Sig strikes landed
42
102
Sig strikes attempted
115
63
Total strikes landed
66
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.1
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
132s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Alatengheili
"The Mongolian Knight"
17-10-3
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
D
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
Blue corner
L2
Kevin Croom
"Crash"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—