Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jai Herbert
Ilia Topuria
26%
74%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 8"
69"
34
Age
Δ 9y
25
15-6-1
Career record
Δ 32 pp
18-0
W1
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Herbert: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Topuria: 20 sig / 1 TD
Jai Herbert
Ilia Topuria
19
Sig strikes landed
32
49
Sig strikes attempted
50
28
Total strikes landed
54
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.1
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
52s
Control time
223s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
15-6-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
W3
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
18-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—