Main
Women's Flyweight
Molly McCann vs Luana Carolina
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Molly McCann
Luana Carolina
49%
51%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 7"
69"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
15-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
12-5
W1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
McCann: 85 sig / 2 TD ·
Carolina: 64 sig / 0 TD
Molly McCann
Luana Carolina
58
Sig strikes landed
65
129
Sig strikes attempted
159
76
Total strikes landed
89
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Molly McCann
"Meatball"
15-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
Blue corner
W2
Luana Carolina
"Dread"
12-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—