Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov vs Paul Craig
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nikita Krylov
Paul Craig
86%
14%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
31-12
Career record
Δ 10 pp
18-10-1
L1
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Krylov: 19 sig / 1 TD ·
Craig: 2 sig / 1 TD
Nikita Krylov
Paul Craig
28
Sig strikes landed
26
47
Sig strikes attempted
54
49
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
138s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
31-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
Blue corner
W3
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
18-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—