Prelims1
Heavyweight
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Sergei Pavlovich
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Sergei Pavlovich
22%
78%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 8"
84"
40
Age
Δ 11y
30
20-9
Career record
Δ 19 pp
22-3
L2
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Abdurakhimov: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Pavlovich: 21 sig / 0 TD
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Sergei Pavlovich
12
Sig strikes landed
29
31
Sig strikes attempted
53
15
Total strikes landed
36
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.80
71s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
80%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Shamil Abdurakhimov
"Abrek"
20-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W2
Sergei Pavlovich
22-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
84"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—