Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gunnar Nelson
Takashi Sato
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
19-7-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
16-8
L2
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nelson: 44 sig / 3 TD ·
Sato: 9 sig / 0 TD
Gunnar Nelson
Takashi Sato
30
Sig strikes landed
23
49
Sig strikes attempted
50
74
Total strikes landed
35
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
195s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
19-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
Blue corner
L1
Takashi Sato
"Ten"
16-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—