Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rongzhu
Ignacio Bahamondes
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
22
Age
Δ 2y
24
29-6
Career record
Δ 11 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Rongzhu: 48 sig / 1 TD ·
Bahamondes: 126 sig / 0 TD
Rongzhu
Ignacio Bahamondes
83
Sig strikes landed
110
193
Sig strikes attempted
191
99
Total strikes landed
119
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
184s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rongzhu
29-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Ignacio Bahamondes
"La Jaula"
18-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—