Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Nikolas Motta
69%
31%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
38
Age
Δ 10y
29
W1
Current streak
—
33
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Miller: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Motta: 21 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Nikolas Motta
28
Sig strikes landed
33
58
Sig strikes attempted
72
40
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
119s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
33 fights · 18-14
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
Blue corner
Nikolas Motta
"Iron"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29