Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kyle Daukaus
Jamie Pickett
86%
14%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
29
Age
Δ 4y
34
17-4
Career record
Δ 25 pp
14-11
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Daukaus: 6 sig / 3 TD ·
Pickett: 5 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Daukaus
Jamie Pickett
44
Sig strikes landed
40
91
Sig strikes attempted
83
74
Total strikes landed
58
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
7.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
343s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kyle Daukaus
17-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
W2
Jamie Pickett
"The Night Wolf"
14-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—