Back to UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Kris Moutinho vs Guido Cannetti

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kris Moutinho
Guido Cannetti
83% 17%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
30
Age
Δ 13y
42
14-9
Career record
Δ 8 pp
10-9
L1
Current streak
L3
1
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Moutinho: 11 sig / 0 TD · Cannetti: 28 sig / 0 TD
Kris Moutinho
Guido Cannetti
44
Sig strikes landed
61
124
Sig strikes attempted
111
68
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Kris Moutinho

14-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
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Blue corner
L3

Guido Cannetti

"Ninja"
10-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database 7 fights · 2-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
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L UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
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L UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
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W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
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L UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
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