Back to UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Tafon Nchukwi vs Azamat Murzakanov

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Tafon Nchukwi
Azamat Murzakanov
36% 64%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
W1
Current streak
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3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Nchukwi: 43 sig / 0 TD · Murzakanov: 28 sig / 1 TD
Tafon Nchukwi
Azamat Murzakanov
45
Sig strikes landed
54
86
Sig strikes attempted
98
61
Total strikes landed
91
-0.1
Takedowns landed
1.9
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
19s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Tafon Nchukwi

"Da Don"
7-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
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L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
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Blue corner

Azamat Murzakanov

"The Professional"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33