Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Drew Dober
Terrance McKinney
61%
39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
29-16
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-8
L2
Current streak
W2
17
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dober: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
McKinney: 36 sig / 2 TD
Drew Dober
Terrance McKinney
31
Sig strikes landed
37
60
Sig strikes attempted
84
47
Total strikes landed
48
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
101s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Drew Dober
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
17 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W2
Terrance McKinney
"T. Wrecks"
19-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—