Back to UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Prelims1 Welterweight

Matthew Semelsberger vs AJ Fletcher

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Matthew Semelsberger
AJ Fletcher
47% 53%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 8"
67"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Semelsberger: 40 sig / 1 TD · Fletcher: 34 sig / 4 TD
Matthew Semelsberger
AJ Fletcher
46
Sig strikes landed
35
96
Sig strikes attempted
76
58
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
134s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Matthew Semelsberger

"Semi The Jedi"
12-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
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L UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
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W UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
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W UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
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Blue corner

AJ Fletcher

"The Ghost"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
25