Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Marlon Moraes
Song Yadong
37%
63%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
34
Age
Δ 10y
24
23-11-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-9-1
L3
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Moraes: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Yadong: 14 sig / 0 TD
Marlon Moraes
Song Yadong
32
Sig strikes landed
55
87
Sig strikes attempted
130
40
Total strikes landed
68
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
36s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Marlon Moraes
"Magic"
23-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
Blue corner
W2
Song Yadong
"Kung Fu Kid"
24-9-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
9 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—