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Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Thiago Santos
Magomed Ankalaev
25% 75%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
38
Age
Δ 8y
30
23-11
Career record
Δ 20 pp
22-2-1
W1
Current streak
W7
22
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Santos: 60 sig / 0 TD · Ankalaev: 78 sig / 1 TD
Thiago Santos
Magomed Ankalaev
35
Sig strikes landed
57
66
Sig strikes attempted
95
45
Total strikes landed
81
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
21s
Control time
212s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Thiago Santos

"Marreta"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 22 fights · 14-8
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
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L UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
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L UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
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L UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
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W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W7

Magomed Ankalaev

22-2-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
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W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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W UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
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W UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
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