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Main Welterweight

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Carlston Harris

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Carlston Harris
84% 16%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
27
Age
Δ 7y
35
20-0
Career record
Δ 29 pp
20-8
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rakhmonov: 13 sig / 1 TD · Harris: 10 sig / 0 TD
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Carlston Harris
24
Sig strikes landed
12
44
Sig strikes attempted
34
36
Total strikes landed
20
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
155s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
40%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Shavkat Rakhmonov

"Nomad"
20-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
W UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Blue corner
W2

Carlston Harris

"Mocambique"
20-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …