Main
Light Heavyweight
Sam Alvey vs Brendan Allen
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Alvey
Brendan Allen
30%
70%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
36
Age
Δ 10y
26
33-19-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
26-8
L2
Current streak
L1
22
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Alvey: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Allen: 36 sig / 0 TD
Sam Alvey
Brendan Allen
25
Sig strikes landed
43
55
Sig strikes attempted
85
42
Total strikes landed
54
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
42s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33-19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
22 fights · 10-11
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
D
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Brendan Allen
"All In"
26-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—