Back to UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Jailton Almeida vs Danilo Marques

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland ·Meta Apex
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jailton Almeida
Danilo Marques
84% 16%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
31
Age
Δ 6y
36
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Almeida: 30 sig / 2 TD · Marques: 0 sig / 0 TD
Jailton Almeida
Danilo Marques
22
Sig strikes landed
18
37
Sig strikes attempted
35
54
Total strikes landed
38
1.4
Takedowns landed
2.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
128s
Control time
266s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jailton Almeida

"Malhadinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
L1

Danilo Marques

11-5
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—