Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Max Griffin
79%
21%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
35
Age
Δ 2y
36
32-15
Career record
Δ 6 pp
21-13
W1
Current streak
W3
25
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Magny: 54 sig / 1 TD ·
Griffin: 67 sig / 0 TD
Neil Magny
Max Griffin
60
Sig strikes landed
51
133
Sig strikes attempted
108
85
Total strikes landed
71
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
143s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
25 fights · 18-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
Blue corner
W3
Max Griffin
"Pain"
21-13
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—