Main
Flyweight
Askar Askarov vs Kai Kara-France
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus
·Nationwide Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Askar Askarov
Kai Kara-France
58%
42%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
30
Age
Δ 0y
29
15-1-1
Career record
Δ 20 pp
26-12
W3
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Askarov: 27 sig / 2 TD ·
Kara-France: 51 sig / 0 TD
Askar Askarov
Kai Kara-France
55
Sig strikes landed
54
125
Sig strikes attempted
129
75
Total strikes landed
65
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
204s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Askar Askarov
"Bullet"
15-1-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-0
Last 4
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W2
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
26-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—