Back to UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus
Main Welterweight

Matt Brown vs Bryan Barberena

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus ·Nationwide Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Bryan Barberena
49% 51%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
41
Age
Δ 8y
33
27-19
Career record
Δ 3 pp
19-12
W1
Current streak
W1
23
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Brown: 81 sig / 5 TD · Barberena: 111 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Bryan Barberena
60
Sig strikes landed
67
117
Sig strikes attempted
118
66
Total strikes landed
92
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
111s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Matt Brown

"The Immortal"
27-19
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database 23 fights · 12-11
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
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L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
W1

Bryan Barberena

"Bam Bam"
19-12
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—