Prelims2
Featherweight
Brian Kelleher vs Umar Nurmagomedov
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brian Kelleher
Umar Nurmagomedov
15%
85%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
36
Age
Δ 9y
26
25-16
Career record
Δ 34 pp
21-1
W2
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Kelleher: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Nurmagomedov: 18 sig / 1 TD
Brian Kelleher
Umar Nurmagomedov
16
Sig strikes landed
39
42
Sig strikes attempted
84
26
Total strikes landed
56
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
58s
Control time
228s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
25-16
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
Blue corner
W1
Umar Nurmagomedov
21-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—