Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Tagir Ulanbekov
31%
69%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
35
Age
Δ 5y
31
22-15-1
Career record
Δ 28 pp
18-3
L1
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elliott: 79 sig / 3 TD ·
Ulanbekov: 90 sig / 2 TD
Tim Elliott
Tagir Ulanbekov
42
Sig strikes landed
46
90
Sig strikes attempted
141
65
Total strikes landed
78
1.6
Takedowns landed
3.1
4.0
Takedowns attempted
7.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
140s
Control time
271s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Elliott
22-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 6-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
Blue corner
W2
Tagir Ulanbekov
18-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—