Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Maryna Moroz vs Mariya Agapova
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Maryna Moroz
Mariya Agapova
41%
59%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
30
Age
Δ 6y
25
12-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
11-5
W2
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Moroz: 28 sig / 2 TD ·
Agapova: 16 sig / 0 TD
Maryna Moroz
Mariya Agapova
46
Sig strikes landed
61
104
Sig strikes attempted
128
56
Total strikes landed
81
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
170s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Maryna Moroz
"Iron Lady"
12-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Mariya Agapova
"Money Mashka"
11-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—