Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Serghei Spivac
Greg Hardy
85%
15%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
80"
27
Age
Δ 6y
34
18-7
Career record
Δ 18 pp
7-6
L1
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Spivac: 14 sig / 3 TD ·
Hardy: 7 sig / 0 TD
Serghei Spivac
Greg Hardy
41
Sig strikes landed
28
77
Sig strikes attempted
63
62
Total strikes landed
43
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
196s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
18-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L2
Greg Hardy
"Prince of War"
7-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—