Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Alex Oliveira
75%
25%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
29-15
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-13-1
L2
Current streak
L3
13
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Holland: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 21 sig / 2 TD
Kevin Holland
Alex Oliveira
46
Sig strikes landed
27
87
Sig strikes attempted
50
60
Total strikes landed
47
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.8
0.7
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
92s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
Blue corner
L3
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22-13-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
21 fights · 11-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—