Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Bryce Mitchell
33%
67%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
36
Age
Δ 9y
27
24-15
Career record
Δ 21 pp
19-4
L1
Current streak
W5
26
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barboza: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Mitchell: 34 sig / 4 TD
Edson Barboza
Bryce Mitchell
34
Sig strikes landed
43
75
Sig strikes attempted
88
46
Total strikes landed
88
0.1
Takedowns landed
2.2
0.2
Takedowns attempted
7.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
46s
Control time
290s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
26 fights · 16-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
W5
Bryce Mitchell
"Thug Nasty"
19-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—