Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez vs Yan Xiaonan
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Marina Rodriguez
Yan Xiaonan
48%
52%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
18-6-2
Career record
Δ 7 pp
19-6
W3
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rodriguez: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
Xiaonan: 56 sig / 2 TD
Marina Rodriguez
Yan Xiaonan
80
Sig strikes landed
72
182
Sig strikes attempted
162
88
Total strikes landed
85
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
84s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Marina Rodriguez
18-6-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
Blue corner
L1
Yan Xiaonan
19-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—