Back to UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski vs Jared Vanderaa

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 ·Toyota Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Jared Vanderaa
57% 43%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
80"
43
Age
Δ 13y
30
35-24
Career record
Δ 7 pp
12-11
W2
Current streak
L1
22
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Arlovski: 64 sig / 0 TD · Vanderaa: 70 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Jared Vanderaa
54
Sig strikes landed
56
129
Sig strikes attempted
119
66
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
22s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Andrei Arlovski

"The Pitbull"
35-24 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database 22 fights · 11-10
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
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W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
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W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
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W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
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Blue corner
L1

Jared Vanderaa

12-11
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
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W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
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L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
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